Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 67.7%
Prognostiker
17
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet5. Jan. 26, 16:44 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the USA control Greenland by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump or his family benefit financially from US control of Venezuela by end of year?
Manifold MarketsVenezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
PolymarketWhat countries will Marco Rubio visit in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the USA controls Venezuela by December 31, 2026. "Control" is defined as the Trump administration's stated objective of running the country until a political transition occurs.
- Resolution will be determined by whether the US maintains effective administrative and military control over Venezuelan territory and governance, as evidenced by:
- Continued US military presence and operational authority in Venezuela
- US direction of Venezuelan government functions and policy
- US control over Venezuelan oil infrastructure and resource extraction