Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 29.10.2026, 12:49 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 62.8%
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert gestern
Veraltet24. Jan. 26, 17:12 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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ForecastExRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a major outbreak of avian flu is confirmed by the end of 2027.
- A "major outbreak" is defined as one of the following occurring before January 1, 2028:
- Sustained human-to-human transmission: Confirmed human-to-human transmission of H5N1 with at least 10 confirmed cases resulting from person-to-person spread (not occupational exposure to animals).
- Significant poultry mortality event: A single outbreak affecting 10+ million birds across one or more countries, requiring mass culling operations.
- Pandemic declaration: Official declaration of a pandemic by the WHO related to avian influenza.
