Will the US or China officially announce a Busan trade truce extension past Nov 10, 2026, by November 6, 2026?
One-OffHandelspolitikUS-PolitikChinaManifold MarketsGeschlossenKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertDieser Markt wurde entschieden: Yes (98.3%)
Entschieden: 12.10.2026, 14:00
Vom Anbieter verifizierte Auflösung
CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.
Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 13.10.2026, 00:28 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
Yes98.3%
No1.7000000000000028%
Gewonnen
Verloren
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will China extend its Ga/Ge/Sb export-ban suspension for the US past Nov 27, 2026, as of December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
PolymarketUS x China Military clash before 2027?
PolymarketUS and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsHot war between the US and China by the end of 2026?
FutuurRegeln
This market resolves YES if, on or before November 6, 2026, the US government (White House, USTR or Commerce) or the Chinese government (MOFCOM or State Council) has officially announced that the November 2025 Busan trade truce will continue beyond its November 10, 2026 expiry.
- An extension of any length counts, as does a successor arrangement that keeps China's October 9, 2025 export controls suspended past November 10, 2026.
- Statements that talks are progressing or that an extension is expected do not count.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
- Background: after the October 30, 2025 Trump-Xi meeting in Busan, China suspended its October 2025 rare-earth and battery-material export controls until November 10, 2026 (MOFCOM/GAC Announcement No. 70 of 2025), and the US suspended matching measures for one year.
- Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington runs September 23-25, 2026, with the bilateral meeting on September 24.
