Will the US implement testing and evaluation requirements for frontier AI models by 2028?
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This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 requiring safety testing and evaluation for frontier AI models, which are defined as those with highly general capabilities (over a certain threshold) or trained with a certain compute budget (e.g. as much compute as $1 billion can buy today).
- The policy should also mandate independent audits by qualified auditors to assess the safety and performance of these models.
- Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
