Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 82.4%
Prognostiker
36
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet13. Dez. 23, 08:21 UTC1. Jan. 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Hungary still be a voting member of the EU European Commission in 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform UK top the YouGov voting intention poll at the time of the next UK general election, but lose?
Manifold MarketsWill a sitting head of state post a video of themselves dancing on TikTok or Instagram Reels by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?
ForecastExNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRegeln
This refers to the general election for the house of commons (not local elections of Scottish/Welsh/Northern Irish)
- An ammended version of FPTP which includes ranked choice will resolve to Yes.
- Or any other amendments that significantly change the way that people vote and how well parties do - I will decide this so slightly ambiguous.
- Any other systems will resolve to Yes eg Proportional representation (whether that's STV of some other system)
- If the system remains in place as it currently is by the 1st of Jan 2030 then this resolves to No
- A bill to change the voting systems needs to have passed before the date of Jan 1st 2030, so anything that is being debated will not be considered.
