Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
InflationOne-OffTrade PolicyMacro & EconomyUS Politics2JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 75%
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Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet15. März 25, 01:42 UTC5. Nov. 28, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
Source: FRED
- Nov 4, 2028 as compared with Nov 4, 2024
- Inflation adjusted
- Update 2025-08-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will use a year-over-year comparison of the US trade deficit from FRED, rather than specific daily dates or fiscal-year totals.
- Figures remain inflation adjusted as stated.
- Update 2025-08-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Use FRED data; figures are inflation-adjusted.
Offene Märkte
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52.5%
- No change-3.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 89,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 323.760,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 25.329 €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 523.015,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 22.025,7 €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt54.3%
- September Meeting+3.0pt45.7%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
- 1.5-1.7%-9.9pt68.8%
- 1.8-2.0%+8.2pt26%
- 1.2-1.4%-3.0pt3.1%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the Citrini scenario happen?
- No83%
- Yes17%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 4356,6 €
- August Inflation US - Annual
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Egg prices up in August?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 75% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term entschieden?
- Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term soll am 5. November 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Source: FRED