Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJoe Rogan 45.4%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 22 Stunden
Veraltet1. Apr. 26, 00:20 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Usha Vance convert to Christianity before the election?
Manifold MarketsWhat significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for each person if they publicly identify as Christian or convert to Christianity before January 1, 2030.
- Conversion requires either: (1) explicit public statement of Christian faith and belief in Jesus Christ as savior, or (2) formal baptism/confirmation into a Christian denomination.
- Identifying as "cultural Christian" or expressing admiration for Christian teachings without affirming core Christian doctrine does not constitute conversion.
- Resolution sources include public interviews, social media statements, official church records, and credible news reporting.
- the named outcome has recently attended church services on a consistent basis, though he has never professed to be a Christian.
