Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJoe Rogan 45.4%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert1. Apr. 26, 00:20 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Usha Vance convert to Christianity before the election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next permanent host of The Daily Show? [Add Answers]
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for each person if they publicly identify as Christian or convert to Christianity before January 1, 2030.
- Conversion requires either: (1) explicit public statement of Christian faith and belief in Jesus Christ as savior, or (2) formal baptism/confirmation into a Christian denomination.
- Identifying as "cultural Christian" or expressing admiration for Christian teachings without affirming core Christian doctrine does not constitute conversion.
- Resolution sources include public interviews, social media statements, official church records, and credible news reporting.
- the named outcome has recently attended church services on a consistent basis, though he has never professed to be a Christian.