Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 72%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
9. Feb. 23, 18:33 UTC10. Feb. 95, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
KalshiWho will be the next person to land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next person be to land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill Artemis 3 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRegeln
I often wonder this.
- The first person is the "Neil Armstrong" of Mars: the one who steps onto the planet first, is feted as the "first" etc. Resolves when they die or return to Earth.
- Close date updated to 2095-02-10 12:00 am
Offene Märkte
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 103.065,4 €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 57.371,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 57.371,5 €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 817.857 €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 72% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth? entschieden?
- Will the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth? soll am 10. Februar 2095 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: I often wonder this.