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Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus released on?
PolymarketTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRegeln
AGI strictly refers to strong AI that surpasses or matches humans at every task.
- Any architecture that primarily relies on using next-token prediction, such as GPT 4 or Claude 3 would count as an LLM.
- Update 2026-08-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Agentic wrappers and harnesses (such as those handling tool calls, context management, or preloaded skills) do not prevent a system from counting as an LLM.
- The architecture will still be considered as relying on next-token prediction if its core intelligence is derived from the underlying model.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 269.839,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 199.899,7 €
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,3 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 4,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 107.516,9 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10,3 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 85.006,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 65.253,9 €
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the first AGI be a large language model??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 63.4% (Stand: 22. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the first AGI be a large language model? entschieden?
- Will the first AGI be a large language model? soll am 1. Februar 2040 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the first AGI be a large language model? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: AGI strictly refers to strong AI that surpasses or matches humans at every task.