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Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
Manifold MarketsWill AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
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This question is a duplicate of another question (https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-pass-the-turing-test-by-202) scheduled to close later.
- It is based on a bet between Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor, found here: https://longbets.org/1/
- This question will only resolve YES if the Long Now Foundation announces that Ray Kurzweil won the bet.
- It will resolve to NO if Mitchell Kapor is announced the winner instead.
- Each Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials.
- For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.