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Veraltet18. Juli 25, 07:00 UTC31. Dez. 28, 23:59 UTC
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Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?
Manifold MarketsWill AI pass Video Turing Test by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsNext Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Rank Debut?
PolymarketRegeln
Here's a human-made video of a Rube Goldberg machine:
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ss-P4qLLUyk
- [link preview]Eliezer Yudkowsky has predicted that the ability to generate a video like that (indistinguishable from reality even on close human inspection) from a prompt will require an AI that's within 1 year of AGI.
- Since this is another leading indicator, I thought it would be good to have a Manifold market for it.
- Yudkowsky's thinking is that it takes a high-fidelity physics model to make all the balls and dominoes and things interact realistically.
- If you understand the physical world at that level, AGI isn't far behind.
