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Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI model will first pass the Longbets version of the Turing test?
Manifold MarketsWill AI pass Video Turing Test by 2030?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
Manifold MarketsSuperhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?
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This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet between Ray Kurzweil (YES) and Mitch Kapor (NO).
- It's a much more stringent Turing test than just "person on the street chats informally with a bot and can't tell it from a human".
- In fact, it's carefully constructed to be a proxy for AGI.
- Experts who know all the bot's weaknesses get to grill it for hours.
- Kurzweil and Kapor agree that LLMs as of 2023 don't and can't pass this Turing test.
- Personally I think Kapor will win and Kurzweil will lose -- that a computer will not pass this version of the Turing test this decade.
