Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 67%
Prognostiker
10
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet7. Sept. 26, 16:27 UTC31. Dez. 40, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsNASA lands on the moon?
KalshiWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRegeln
resolves NO when P vs NP is resolved or YES when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first
- resolution of P vs NP is a proof or disproof of P≠NP accepted by the mathematical community
- man lands on Mars when a live human body is separated from the Mars surface only by like a solid thing, such as a spaceship or spacesuit (edit: or both of course, but touching each other)
Offene Märkte
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 103.065,4 €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 57.371,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 57.371,5 €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 817.857 €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 67% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars? entschieden?
- Will P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars? soll am 31. Dezember 2040 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: resolves NO when P vs NP is resolved or YES when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first