Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

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Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 53% (Stand: 28. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? entschieden?

Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? soll am 1. Februar 2028 entschieden werden.

Wie wird Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? abgerechnet?

Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini+16.0pt46%
• Claude-15.1pt44.7%
• ChatGPT-0.8pt6.6%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

Gesamtvolumen

14,3 Mio. €

24h-Volumen

183.660,7 €

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,95%
• December 15,+1.0pt93%
• November 30,-0.5pt87%

+15 weitere Ergebnisse

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google+15.0pt50%
• Anthropic-15.0pt42%
• OpenAI6%

+12 weitere Ergebnisse

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+0.5pt29.1%
• $2.0–$2.25T-1.4pt22.3%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.1pt16.5%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

POLYMARKET

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

• <$1T-8.9pt21%
• $1.25T–$1.5T+1.9pt19%
• $1.5T–$1.75T+0.8pt18%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+1.7pt98%
• Anthropic-2.4pt2%
• Alibaba0%

+18 weitere Ergebnisse

• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 28, 2026
• How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?
• DeepSeek market share this week