Will One Nation win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election in Australia?
PolitikOne-OffSchachUS-PolitikWahlSport1J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 79.2%
Prognostiker
17
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 43 Minuten
23. Juni 26, 16:16 UTC31. Mai 28, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill One Nation win more seats than the Liberals+Nationals+QLNP+CLP combined at the next Australian federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill One Nation’s primary vote share in the next federal election exceed 15%?
Manifold MarketsWill the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats at the next general election for the House of Representatives?
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiNext Canadian federal election winner?
KalshiRegeln
The next federal election to elect the 49th Parliament of Australia must occur before the 23rd of September, 2028.
- If One Nation gets a majority of seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, this market will resolve YES.
- Otherwise NO.
- To be clear, because they have to win a majority of seats for this market to resolve to YES, even if they form a minority government (e.g. as Labor did in 2010) with the help of crossbenchers declaring support on confidence and supply, this market will still resolve to NO.