Will One Nation win more seats than the Liberals+Nationals+QLNP+CLP combined at the next Australian federal election?
PolitikOne-OffUS-PolitikWahl1J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 21:52 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 50%
Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet2. Feb. 26, 12:06 UTC19. Mai 28, 13:59 UTC
Trends
Regeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if One Nation wins more House of Representatives seats than the combined total of the Liberal Party, National Party, Liberal National Party of Queensland, and Country Liberal Party at the next Australian federal election, currently scheduled for 2028.
- Resolution will be determined by the official results published by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) at https://www.aec.gov.au/.
- The final seat count for each party will be used, including any changes from recounts or disputed elections resolved before the new parliament sits.
- The seat count for the Liberals + Nationals + LNP + CLP will be combined regardless of whether or not the parties are in coalition.
- This will include any state-level branch of the Liberal Party or National Party; for example, even if the coalition is re-formed but the WA Nationals are not a part of the coalition (as has often been the case in recent times), any seats won by the WA Nationals WILL count towards the combined Liberals + Nationals + LNP + CLP seat count.
