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Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsRegeln
Level 5 is the level that matches human skill, but level 4 is the level that actually matters economically, because it's the level at which it's safe for the human to stop paying attention to the road, freeing up their time for other activities.
- (Let's say on average it must require the human take over no more than once an hour.
- And I'll allow it if they're only level 4 on a clear summer day.)
- "Available" means I can either purchase one myself, or rent one.
- Long wait times are acceptable in rural areas; presumably renting one would cause it to drive itself out from the nearest major city, arriving a few hours later.
- There's no price cap, but it has to be a commercial product; it can't be a prototype that someone will let me borrow if I pay them $1 million.
