Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 77%
Prognostiker
26
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet22. Aug. 23, 12:47 UTC2. Aug. 28, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will RAM be more expensive next year? (Oct 2026 - Oct 2027)
Manifold MarketsWho will be the director of the most expensive movie made and released at the end of 2028, adjusted for inflation?
Manifold MarketsWhich five artists will be at the top of the list for most expensive paintings ever sold on Jan 1, 2030?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in October?
PolymarketNYC median asking rent in December 2026
KalshiCPI YoY in November
KalshiRegeln
For every quarter, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) publishes very detailed statistics on the cost of flights between a wide variety of US cities.
- They even inflation adjust historical prices to the current quarter!
- At the very bottom of their table, they have a row "National Average".
- Once the 2028 Q1 statistics are released, I will calculate the percentage increase in fare prices (((2023Q1AverageFare-2028Q1AverageFare)/2023Q1AverageFare)*100).
- This market will resolve YES if the inflation adjusted national average fare in 2028Q1 (2023Q1AverageFare) is more than 33 percent higher than the inflation adjusted national average fare in 2023Q1 (2023Q1AverageFare) (e.g. if the result of the above calculation is 33 or higher).
- Else, it will resolve no.