Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 81.4%
Prognostiker
27
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet23. Juli 26, 02:27 UTC1. Jan. 35, 03:24 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?
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Manifold MarketsIf Isaac King dies or is incapacitated, will his markets be resolved?
Manifold MarketsIsaac King vs. @Jim - $1000 USD on whether AI will beat Minecraft in under 10 minutes
Manifold MarketsTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
See: @/IsaacKing/if-i-set-my-curtain-on-fire-and-don
- Resolves whenever that market resolves.
- If it gets extended, so will this market.
- If Isaac sets his curtain on fire for at least 1 minute, this resolves YES.
- If Isaac sets his curtain on fire for less than a minute, it will resolve to whatever percentage of a minute the curtain was on fire for (e.g. 30 seconds = 50%).
- If Isaac sets his curtain on fire for less than a minute, but does not know/did not record how long, it will resolve NO.