Will I be credibly accused of sexual assault or sexual harassment before 2028?
One-OffKriminalität & JustizGesellschaft & Kultur1JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 14.10.2026, 11:21 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 96.7%
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Veraltet22. März 23, 04:35 UTC1. Jan. 28, 08:00 UTC
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This market works as follows:
- If any accusation is made, I'll try to link to any relevant evidence in the comments, and anyone else can also provide any evidence they believe to be relevant.
- After it doesn't seem like any more evidence is likely to be forthcoming, I will ask Manifold users to vote on whether they believe the accusation is credible.
- A certain voter believes the accusation is "credible", if, after looking at the evidence, they think there's at least a 50% chance that I did sexually assault or sexually harrass someone as described in the accusation.
- (Each voter should use whatever definition of "sexual assault" and "sexual harrassment" they believe to be most correct.)
- If it seems like one person may have created a bunch of accounts in order to manipulate the votes, I'll ask the Manifold admins to look into it.
