Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 63.9%
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert28. Jan. 24, 17:54 UTC2. Jan. 61, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Elon Musk spend a month in outer space?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk spend a year in outer space?
Manifold Marketswill human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRegeln
Must be a manned mission to the Outer Solar System (beyond orbit of Jupiter)
- Must be achieved before 2061
- Humans do not need to step foot on a solid object in the Outer Solar System, but must enter orbit around a celestial object in that region (gas giant planets or asteroid)
Offene Märkte
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 103.065,4 €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 57.371,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 57.371,5 €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 817.857 €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 64% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns? entschieden?
- Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns? soll am 2. Januar 2061 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Must be a manned mission to the Outer Solar System (beyond orbit of Jupiter)