Aktuelle Community-Prognose
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Prognostiker
15
Fragetyp
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Minuten
30. Jan. 26, 16:49 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by which date?
PolymarketOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
PolymarketOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a single AI system demonstrate autonomous expert-level performance across 3+ fundamentally different domains?
Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Elon Musk posts on X (formerly Twitter) a tweet explicitly stating that a Grok successor model has achieved "AGI-level performance," "AGI has been reached," or substantially equivalent language claiming AGI achievement by December 31, 2026.
- The tweet must be posted by @elonmusk's verified account and must specifically reference a Grok model version (e.g., Grok 5, Grok 6, etc.).
- Resolution is based on the literal text of the tweet; claims about "approaching AGI" or "near-AGI capabilities" do not qualify.
- The market resolves NO if no such tweet is posted by the deadline.
- Elon Musk predicts that his company xAI could achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) within the next couple of years, and maybe as soon as 2026.
