Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 65.7%
Prognostiker
24
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert23. Jan. 24, 03:46 UTC2. Jan. 40, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If most of the economy becomes automated without us all dying, will Eliezer Yudkowsky admit that he was wrong?
Manifold MarketsWill AGI figure out who is the ideal integrator of the conscious human experience by 2030
Manifold MarketsWill AGI figure out a quantilizer of which people roughly continued most to its global computation?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI/ASI/Digial-Superintelligence to figure out why he was wrong predicting AI would destroy humanity.
- Resolves yes if this happens by 2040.