Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?
UnterhaltungOne-OffKIMusikTechnik13JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 77.6%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet12. März 25, 07:22 UTC2. Feb. 40, 13:29 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
Manifold Markets[Add options] Which of these highly unlikely things will happen to me this century?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI-generated song about Bitcoin reach 1M streams before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
The Awards that could count for the purposes of this market are:
- Turing Award
- IEEE Richard W. Hamming Medal
- Millenium Technology Prize
- Nebula Award
- IEEE John von Neumann Medal
