Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

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Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040??

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 75.8% (Stand: 27. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040? entschieden?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040? soll am 1. Januar 2040 entschieden werden.

Wie wird Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040? abgerechnet?

Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text.

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POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

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• Anthropic-5.2pt4%
• Alibaba+0.1pt0%

+18 weitere Ergebnisse

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164.656,1 €

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic-1.0pt56%
• Google+1.0pt35%
• OpenAI+0.1pt6%

+12 weitere Ergebnisse

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt96.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202795%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+3.0pt

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+0.7pt59.5%
• Gemini-0.1pt30.1%
• ChatGPT+0.2pt

POLYMARKET

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?

• December 31-5.5pt82%
• December 15-14.0pt74%
• November 30+6.5pt64%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

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• $2.0–$2.25T+0.6pt24%
• $1.5–$1.75T+1.3pt17.3%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

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