Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
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Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet14. Mai 23, 07:54 UTC2. Jan. 28, 12:30 UTC
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Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text.
- I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.
- P(doom|something else) is not P(doom).
- He must explicitly specify a number that is less than 97 or that his number is less than 97 for this market to resolve YES.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 88% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028? entschieden?
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028? soll am 2. Januar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text.