Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 58.1%
Prognostiker
4
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet18. Jan. 26, 21:50 UTC31. Dez. 40, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived
Manifold MarketsBy which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?
Manifold Markets10 years before AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will still be less mainstream than global warming was in 2015
Manifold Marketswill the AGI Clock's one-year average be below two years when 'AGI When?' resolves?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves YES if ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) is developed greater than 5 years after AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is developed.
