Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 65.3%
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11
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten
4. Jan. 26, 09:35 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I ever make a real world purchase with a crypto currency?
Manifold MarketsWill there be real-world protests in the US of at least 1,000 people against AI art by the end of 2026?
Manifold Markets2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if, by Jan 1, 2028:
- a publicly documented benchmark exists that evaluates physical (non-simulated) household tasks;
- tasks have explicit success/failure criteria;
- results are intended for comparison across different robots or systems (not a single-vendor demo).
- Resolves NO otherwise.