Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 51.9%
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet4. Jan. 26, 09:35 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I ever make a real world purchase with a crypto currency?
Manifold MarketsWill there be real-world protests in the US of at least 1,000 people against AI art by the end of 2026?
Manifold Markets2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if, by Jan 1, 2028:
- a publicly documented benchmark exists that evaluates physical (non-simulated) household tasks;
- tasks have explicit success/failure criteria;
- results are intended for comparison across different robots or systems (not a single-vendor demo).
- Resolves NO otherwise.
