Will Anthropic’s “global workspace” paper (J-space) replicate by EOY2030? [prop bets; add your own]

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Daten vom 23.07.2026, 18:40 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3

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Competing frontier lab shows a global workspace on one of their own closed models using similar experimental methods 69.6%-9.8pt

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11. Juli 26, 22:5931. Dez. 30, 23:59

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Competing frontier lab shows a global workspace on one of their own closed models using similar experimental methods70%

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Resolution criteria

Each option in this independent multiple-choice market will resolve to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specific criteria are met by December 31, 2030, at 11:59 UTC.
“Well-known researcher” means an academic or industrial research scientist with a track record of active publication in their field lasting at least three years who is well-respected in their community OR has an H-index of at least 15.
This is a broad subjective definition but is meant to exclude eg. student projects, independent lone wolves who only publish to arXiv, etv.
This researcher must not be a collaborator of the original paper authors.
“Global workspace” means representations describable using J-lens-like techniques OR representations that act functionally similar to the representations described by Anthropic that carry broad domain-general applicability

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11. Juli5T Daten23. Juli

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Resolution criteria

Each option in this independent multiple-choice market will resolve to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specific criteria are met by December 31, 2030, at 11:59 UTC.
“Well-known researcher” means an academic or industrial research scientist with a track record of active publication in their field lasting at least three years who is well-respected in their community OR has an H-index of at least 15.
This is a broad subjective definition but is meant to exclude eg. student projects, independent lone wolves who only publish to arXiv, etv.
This researcher must not be a collaborator of the original paper authors.
“Global workspace” means representations describable using J-lens-like techniques OR representations that act functionally similar to the representations described by Anthropic that carry broad domain-general applicability