Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseCreate new forms of gambling addiction and financial harm 87.5%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
11
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet17. Feb. 26, 18:23 UTC31. Dez. 30, 18:20 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Anthropic’s “global workspace” paper (J-space) replicate by EOY2030? [prop bets; add your own]
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first Manifold User to reach 10 million mana net worth (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
Manifold MarketsLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
PolymarketWill a law restricting sports trades on prediction markets be enacted in 2026?
PredictItSports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
PolymarketRegeln
Most of this is AI generated,
- I just took the idea from this video and ran with it there will be no high effort resolutions:
- https://youtu.be/73TLRFImsz8?si=Ugm1PAtlZxaDlucI
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on a poll where traders vote on which societal impacts of prediction markets they believe are most likely to materialize.
- Traders can select multiple answers.
Offene Märkte
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 12,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 182.343,6 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,4 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Create new forms of gambling addiction and financial harm mit 88% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own) entschieden?
- Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own) soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Most of this is AI generated,