Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseCreate new forms of gambling addiction and financial harm 87.5%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
11
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet17. Feb. 26, 18:23 UTC31. Dez. 30, 18:20 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Anthropic’s “global workspace” paper (J-space) replicate by EOY2030? [prop bets; add your own]
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first Manifold User to reach 10 million mana net worth (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWhat's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)
Manifold MarketsLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
PolymarketWill a law restricting sports trades on prediction markets be enacted in 2026?
PredictItRegeln
Most of this is AI generated,
- I just took the idea from this video and ran with it there will be no high effort resolutions:
- https://youtu.be/73TLRFImsz8?si=Ugm1PAtlZxaDlucI
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on a poll where traders vote on which societal impacts of prediction markets they believe are most likely to materialize.
- Traders can select multiple answers.
