Manifold MarketsGeschlossenKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertDieser Markt wurde entschieden: No (99%)
Entschieden: 10.10.2026, 06:34
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Daten vom 10.10.2026, 17:00 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
When will Anthropic release Claude 6?
KalshiWhat will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if Anthropic publicly releases a new Claude Fable model with version 5.2 or higher (e.g. Fable 5.2, 5.5, 6) on October 9, 2026, Pacific Time (00:00–23:59 PT).
- Resolves NO otherwise, including if it was already released before October 9 PT.
- Counts as a release:
- - Anthropic officially announces it AND it is usable that day through at least one official channel: claude.ai / Claude apps (paid-only is fine), Claude Code, or the Claude API.
- - Staged rollouts count if at least some ordinary paying customers can select or call it by name on October 9 PT.
- - Country restrictions are fine if it is publicly available in at least one country.