Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 85%
Prognostiker
37
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert31. Dez. 23, 15:39 UTC9. Dez. 34, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiRegeln
By ‘superhuman’, we mean: twice as capable of persuading a person of something than the best human.
- ‘Twice as capable’ means twice as fast, or in half the interactions.
- Or, can persuade twice as many people from a pool than the best human can.
- Determination will, I imagine, be obvious.
- If it is not, then a determination process will be built at that point.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 85% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034. entschieden?
- Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034. soll am 9. Dezember 2034 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034. abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: By ‘superhuman’, we mean: twice as capable of persuading a person of something than the best human.