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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. KI
  3. Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

4.0% (24h)KITechnikYearly6Mon
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
xAI
xAI 16%-4.0%
Führend unter 12 Optionen
Marktqualitat

28 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

6,3 €

Liquidität

1006,9 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

16.0% / 18.0%

Spread

12.5%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute

1. Jan. 26, 5:011. Jan. 27, 15:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

xAI16%

PolymarketAuch verfügbar auf Polymarket

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

9.5%6Mon
Google
Google
+9.5%56%
OpenAI
OpenAI
-0.5%36%
Meta
Meta
14%

+11 weitere Ergebnisse

80 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen30.188,6 €
24h-Volumen512,6 €
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Regeln

If Meta has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If Nvidia has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If xAI has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Mistral has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Deepseek has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Alibaba has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.

Verwandte Märkte

Manifold Markets

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

5879,5 €
Google: 14.5%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

1933,5 €
Ja: 6%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Best AI at the end of 2026?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

441,4 €
Claude: 67%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

69,3 €
Ja: 89.5%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

First year a specific AI model/framework is named as Time's Person of the Year

64,8 €
2025: 0.9%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

In diesen Themen aktiv

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Regeln

If Meta has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If Nvidia has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If xAI has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Mistral has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Deepseek has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Alibaba has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.