Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 98.6%
Prognostiker
28
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 56 Minuten
Verzogert24. Jan. 26, 21:32 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Sydney Von Arx have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CAISI have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Illinois' AI safety bill have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiOpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
I just learned that she doesn't.
- I thought that was crazy.
- To resolve YES, the Wikipedia page must exist for at least 95% of the month of December.
- (I want this market to be robust to Wikipedia vandalism.)
- General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.