Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 23:51 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 82.3%
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5
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Aktualisiert vor 25 Minuten
4. Okt. 26, 17:28 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Illinois' AI safety bill have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Amanda Askell have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CAISI have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketIs Cheryl Scott from ABC CHICAGO pregnant????!?!??? 🤰
Manifold MarketsRegeln
To resolve YES, the Wikipedia page must exist for at least 95% of the month of December.
- (I want this market to be robust to Wikipedia vandalism.)
- General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
