Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 92.2%
Prognostiker
34
Fragetyp
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 31 Minuten
7. Apr. 23, 02:22 UTC1. Jan. 00, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
By the end of this century, will the dominant form of intelligent life on Earth be digital or biological?
Manifold MarketsIn which decade will AI wipe out humanity?
Manifold MarketsEvidence of life out of Earth by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill we have conclusive evidence by 2030 that life on Earth has an extraterrestrial origin?
Manifold MarketsWill Enceladus' hydrothermal vents be found to harbor life that is similar (i.e., ~ redox chemistry) to life on Earth's?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
This market resolves YES if AI wipes out all biological life on Earth before the year 2100.
- Presumably in that case the AI will have to be kind enough to posthumously resolve this market on our behalf, but in the meantime Manifold loans should give you some incentive to bet on this market.
- This market resolves NO if the AI stops short of wiping out all biological life on Earth.
- If there's still a single amoeba, extremophile, mite, lichen, protist, or tardigrade still clinging to life somwhere on January 1st in the year of our Lord 2100, this market resolves NO.
- Also if something other than AI wipes out all life on Earth--such as a super asteroid or a supernova or a black hole or a giant alien space laser (the aliens being non artificial intelligences)--this market resolves NO.
- To be clear, if I (or an heir with my Manifold password) is still alive on January 1st, 2100.
