FutuurVerfügbarkeit prüfenVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 92%
Nein 92%Marktqualitat
31 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
386,6 €
Niedrige LiquiditätTrader
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will we have conclusive evidence by 2030 that life on Earth has an extraterrestrial origin?
Manifold MarketsWill evidence of life be discovered on Mars before 2040?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2040, will there be strong evidence of life (of non-terrestrial origin) in our solar system?
Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRegeln
By 2020, mankind still had no irrefutable evidence that life flourished elsewhere other than on Earth.
- This search, however, is becoming more and more intense and Space Agencies around the world plan space missions to discover extraterrestrial life, whether current or that has existed in the past (biosignatures).
- Targets like Mars, moons of Jupiter and Saturn, and atmospheres of planets outside the solar system are the most targeted in this endeavor.
- If by December 31, 2026, any governmental Space Agency officially announces that it has found substantial evidence of the existence of life outside of earth - be it current life or traces of previous life in the form of bio-signatures - this market will resolve to "Yes".