Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore 2029 91.8%Führend unter 4 Optionen
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verzogert6. März 25, 16:28 UTC31. Dez. 28, 22:59 UTC
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Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsI am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegeln
Will AI outperform the best human on the RE-bench benchmark?
- https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.15114
- [image]Resolution criteria
- This resolution will use AI Digest as its source.
- Score must be > 1.27
- Which AI systems count?