Will a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?
Naher OstenOne-OffReligionGesellschaft & KulturGeopolitik13JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 63%
Prognostiker
21
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet3. Mai 26, 11:30 UTC31. Dez. 39, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized for at least non-Muslims in any Muslim-majority country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsFrance, Germany, Netherlands, or Belgium have Muslim public holiday by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhich European country will be the next to lose territory?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will lose territory to a newly founded country by 2050? [add responses]
Manifold MarketsPope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Criterion: If a country where the population is >50.0% Muslim as of May 03, 2026 is less than or equal to 50.0% Muslim before 2040, the market resolves YES.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_by_country#Countries Eligible Countries: Here are the countries that currently have a Muslim majority and to which the criterion applies: Maldives, Mauritania, Iran, Somalia, Afghanistan, Djibouti, Western Sahara, Algeria, Morocco, Comoros, Niger, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Palestine, Azerbaijan, Jordan, Senegal, Yemen, Libya, Mayotte, Pakistan, Gambia, Mali, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Iraq, Turkmenistan, Kosovo, Turkey, Bangladesh, Egypt, Guinea, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Syria, Oman, Brunei, Kyrgyzstan, Sierra Leone, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Burkina Faso, Malaysia, Chad, Eritrea, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
