Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 59%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet11. Aug. 26, 01:35 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Regeln
Resolves YES if: Before 12:00 AM ET January 1, 2027, any U.S. federal court issues an order enjoining enforcement of, or declaring unenforceable, in whole or in substantial part, at least one of these five statutes: (1) Colorado AI Act (SB 24-205, as amended/replaced by SB 26-189), (2) California SB 53 (Transparency in Frontier AI Act), (3) New York RAISE Act, (4) Texas TRAIGA, (5) Illinois HB 3773.
- • Counts: preliminary injunction, permanent injunction, TRO, or declaratory judgment of unconstitutionality/preemption, from any federal district or appellate court, in any case (xAI v.
- Weiser, a DOJ Task Force suit, or a new industry/trade-group suit).
- • “Substantial part” = the order blocks at least one core operative obligation (e.g., the algorithmic-discrimination duties, frontier transparency/reporting requirements), not merely a severable ancillary provision like a notice formatting rule.
- Resolver judgment on edge cases, stated in advance.
- • Does NOT count: stays pending appeal of a state’s own enforcement, voluntary non-enforcement agreements, state legislative repeal/delay, or rulings on standing/venue without merits relief.
Offene Märkte
AI
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 59% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027? entschieden?
- Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if: Before 12:00 AM ET January 1, 2027, any U.S. federal court issues an order enjoining enforcement of, or declaring unenforceable, in whole or in substantial part, at least one of these five statutes: (1) Colorado AI Act (SB 24-205, as amended/replaced by SB 26-189), (2) California SB 53 (Transparency in Frontier AI Act), (3) New York RAISE Act, (4) Texas TRAIGA, (5) Illinois HB 3773.