Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 56.4%
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet19. Dez. 23, 13:42 UTC3. März 45, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Regeln
Resolves as YES if a directed energy system has levitated a payload of at least 10 grams to the height of 100km before January 1st 2045.
- The payload must be lifted from at maximum 50km by the system (the payload can be released by, for example, a balloon), and must reach an altitude of at least 100km.
- The mass of the payload must be at least 10g when crossing the 100km threshold (the mass of the payload may decrease during levitation due to ablation).
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-35fc264bbc88
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-42027c4cebd3
Offene Märkte
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt88%
- OpenAI-1.7pt10%
- Google2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 85.315,7 €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 153.550,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 39.161,6 €
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- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
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- October 3197%
- Successful splash down?84%
- September 30-5.3pt83%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 409.901,9 €
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- Anthropic+1.3pt59.8%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.1%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-1.0pt84%
- Above 9-27.0pt46%
- Above 10-8.0pt23%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2045??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 56% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2045? entschieden?
- Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2045? soll am 3. März 2045 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2045? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves as YES if a directed energy system has levitated a payload of at least 10 grams to the height of 100km before January 1st 2045.