Will 2020s US productivity average over 1.8%, per Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon's Long Bet?

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Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will 2020s US productivity average over 1.8%, per Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon's Long Bet??

Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 57.6% (Stand: 26. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird Will 2020s US productivity average over 1.8%, per Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon's Long Bet? entschieden?

Will 2020s US productivity average over 1.8%, per Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon's Long Bet? soll am 1. August 2030 entschieden werden.

Wie wird Will 2020s US productivity average over 1.8%, per Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon's Long Bet? abgerechnet?

Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This question resolves YES if the Long Bet between Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J. Gordon is won by Brynjolfsson on LongBets.org.

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KALSHI

Recession this year?

• No96.5%
• Yes3.5%

Gesamtvolumen

3,4 Mio. €

24h-Volumen

49.598,3 €

POLYMARKET

US recession by end of 2026?

• No92.1%
• Yes7.9%

Gesamtvolumen

2,1 Mio. €

24h-Volumen

21.723,8 €

KALSHI

Mexico unemployment rate in October

• Above 2.6%+18.0pt56%
• Above 2.7%+1.0pt36%
• Above 2.8%-17.0pt

KALSHI

Unemployment in October

• Above 3.8%98.5%
• Above 3.7%99.5%
• Above 3.9%98%

KALSHI

Recession in 2027?

• No79.5%
• Yes20.5%

Gesamtvolumen

670.191,6 €

24h-Volumen

11.340,4 €

KALSHI

Unemployment in November

• Above 3.7%+2.0pt95.5%
• Above 3.8%-11.0pt91%
• Above 3.9%82.5%

• South Africa unemployment rate in Q3
• CPI in October
• US economic state at the end of 2026?
• Core CPI YoY in November
• Core CPI YoY in December
• Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
• How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
• South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?
• CPI in December
• October Unemployment Rate
• Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026