Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseAlina Chan 80%Führend unter 18 Optionen
Prognostiker
21
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet15. März 25, 21:40 UTC16. März 30, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsNew COVID variant of concern before 2027?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketMeasles cases in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.
- Many people have strong opinions on this question, from scientists to pundits.
- This question seeks to answer how those opinions will change, after another 5 years have passed.
- At the resolution date, I will search for the most recent statement from each person listed.
- If they say that a lab origin is more likely, I will resolve that name to yes.
- If they say that zoonosis is more likely, I will resolve that name to no.
Offene Märkte
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 20.404 €
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 918.998,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 4170,6 €
KALSHIMedtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2
- Above 8%92%
- Above 9%81%
- Above 11.5%53%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2605,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2605,3 €
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑3.5k+0.1pt100%
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000+3.0pt61%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 866.739 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1697 €
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 611.782,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1101 €
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Alina Chan mit 80% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? entschieden?
- Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? soll am 16. März 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.