Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseAlina Chan 80%Führend unter 18 Optionen
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Will Wikipedia endorse the lab-leak theory for origins of COVID-19 before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a model of chatGPT state lab-leak theory is the origin of covid 19 before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic lab leak by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic lab leak by which date?
LimitlessRegeln
Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.
- Many people have strong opinions on this question, from scientists to pundits.
- This question seeks to answer how those opinions will change, after another 5 years have passed.
- At the resolution date, I will search for the most recent statement from each person listed.
- If they say that a lab origin is more likely, I will resolve that name to yes.
- If they say that zoonosis is more likely, I will resolve that name to no.
