Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 98.6%
Prognostiker
45
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet5. Aug. 23, 20:45 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Manifold MarketsWho will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsNew COVID variant of concern before 2027?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketNew pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
This market is supplimental to "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?":
- https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory
- [link preview]I found a few problems with main COVID market including a long resolution threshold (17 years) and an inactive market creator.
- I believe the long resolution time might be the primary culprit for the YES market skew.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve as YES if clear and definitive evidence is presented by investigators of a lab leak.
Offene Märkte
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 20.404 €
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 918.998,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 4170,6 €
KALSHIMedtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2
- Above 8%92%
- Above 9%81%
- Above 11.5%53%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2605,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2605,3 €
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑3.5k+0.1pt100%
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000+3.0pt61%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 866.739 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1697 €
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 611.782,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1101 €
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 99% (Stand: 10. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027? entschieden?
- Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market is supplimental to "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?":