Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 11.07.2026, 12:20 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJ. D. Vance 83.5%Führend unter 21 Optionen
Prognostiker
59
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 16 Tagen
Veraltet10. Okt. 23, 15:0517. Juni 28, 6:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Ron Desantis52%
Plattformen vergleichen· J. D. Vance
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBeste insgesamt88% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | Mittel | 78% | — | 1470,2 € | 143.565,6 € | vor 16 Minuten | Öffnen → |
| Manifold MarketsDiese Seite | — | 84% | — | — | — | vor 16 Tagen |
Auch verfügbar auf Kalshi
Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1.0 pts1J
78%
-3.0pt70%
+2.0pt62%
+31 weitere Ergebnisse
67 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen344.797,9 €
24h-Volumen1470,2 €
KALSHIRegeln
This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format.
- The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers.
- Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
- Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries will resolve YES.
- The criteria here are:
- The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$269. Juli3T Daten11. Juli
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This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format.
- The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers.
- Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
- Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries will resolve YES.
- The criteria here are:
- The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.