Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseGavin Newsom 89.7%+3.5ptFührend unter 47 Optionen
Prognostiker
157
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+3.5 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Minuten
10. Okt. 23, 15:00 UTC17. Juni 28, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom be the two frontrunners for the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Manifold MarketsWho will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
KalshiWho will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
PredictItWill a woman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
PredictItWho will run for the 2028 Democratic nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers]
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format.
- The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers.
- Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
- Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries will resolve YES.
- The criteria here are:
- The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.
Offene Märkte
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 697.653 €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 471.295,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Gavin Newsom mit 90% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? entschieden?
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? soll am 17. Juni 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format.