Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNeither by end of 2035 47%Führend unter 3 Optionen
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet1. Juni 26, 14:10 UTC31. Dez. 35, 23:00 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a crewed Mars flyby or Mars orbit mission be attempted before a crewed Mars landing mission?
Manifold MarketsWill China successfully complete a Mars Sample Return mission before the USA and Europe do?
Manifold MarketsWill the first crewed Mars mission result in a loss of at least 1 life or mission abortion before reaching Mars orbit?
Manifold MarketsWho will launch the first crewed space station with functioning artificial gravity (via rotation)?
Manifold MarketsBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiBTC price on Oct 27, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- Resolves to whichever party first launches a crewed spacecraft on a trajectory passing within ~50,000 km of Mars.
- "USA" includes any US-based company (SpaceX, etc.) or public agency (NASA). "China" includes CNSA or any Chinese entity.
- A landing is NOT required — a flyby trajectory with crew aboard at the time of launch is sufficient.
- Resolved by launch date.
- If a landing mission flies by Mars en route, it counts as a flyby for this purpose.
