Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Deepmind/Google/Alphabet 29%Führend unter 8 Optionen
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Veraltet3. März 24, 16:53 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all
Manifold MarketsConditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)
Manifold MarketsBy at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015
Manifold MarketsWill the first human level AGI be Neuromorphic/WBE rather than Prosaic?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
This question seeks to identify who will first publicly reveal human-level AGI.
- Timeline: Voting closes at the end of 2029.
- The question may be resolved earlier if a clear winner emerges.
- If human-level AGI is not achieved by 2030, the question will resolve based on who has made the most progress towards the criteria.
- Definitions:
- Human-level AGI: Artificial Intelligence capable of doing almost all human cognitive tasks to a high level (equivalent or better than a median professional in the field).