A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all

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Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all?

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 75.9% (Stand: 20. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all entschieden?

A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all soll am 1. Januar 2999 entschieden werden.

Wie wird A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all abgerechnet?

Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Copied over from Elicit

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029-1.0pt23%
• 2028+1.0pt18%
• 2027-1.0pt9%

Gesamtvolumen

2 Mio. €

24h-Volumen

114.663,6 €

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude-0.8pt51.3%
• Gemini-0.1pt37.5%
• ChatGPT+0.5pt

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

• ↑$1.5T+2.5pt93%
• ↑$1.75T+0.5pt70%
• ↑$2.0T+6.0pt63%

+10 weitere Ergebnisse

KALSHI

DeepSeek market share this week

• Above 23.8%+4.0pt99.5%
• Above 22.7%+1.0pt99.5%
• Above 24.6%+8.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+2.5pt26.9%
• $2.0–$2.25T-1.1pt20.2%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.8pt15.4%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

KALSHI

Best AI this week

• Gemini+2.0pt91%
• Claude-2.0pt8%
• MUSE1.5%

• Which company has the best AI model end of October?
• Anthropic IPO by which date?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• OpenAI market share this week
• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
• Anthropic share of spend on Oct 20, 2026 (Vercel)
• Anthropic share of requests on Oct 20, 2026 (Vercel)
• OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
• Open vs. Closed Token market share (Vercel) in Oct 20, 2026