Which regimes will survive until 2028?
PolitikOne-OffGeopolitikNaher OstenRussland / UkraineChinaLateinamerikaWahl1J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Russia 90.6%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Russia 90.6%Prognostiker
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Veraltet10. Dez. 24, 16:45 UTC2. Jan. 28, 04:59 UTC
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Each answer resolves YES if the current ruling regime is not overthrown, dissolved, or ended (as determined by reputable news sources and Western government reports) by Jan 1, 2028.
- Some examples:
- If the current leader dies or ceases to be the leader, but the same party/group remains in power through 2028, this would resolve YES
- A military coup against any of the regimes (even if done by high ranking members of the current regime) resolves NO
- A democratic election in any regime in which the ruling party/leader wins does not resolve NO, but if an opposition party or leader wins, it would resolve NO
- If the regime loses power and then regains it, that still resolves NO
